Over the last few years, Turkey has faced severe challenges in its dealings with Syria, Russia, and the European Union. But it is reemerging as a regional power. More specifically, recent developments point towards a focus eastwards from Central Asia to the Gulf and East Africa. This could position the country as a vital link in Eurasia.
Observations
- Turkey has a population of 80 million of which 72% lives in urban areas and the median age is 30 years old.
- This month, after two years of development, Turkish soldiers will arrive at a military camp in Somalia. Turkey has aid organizations, a hospital, and educational programs in the country. Turkish companies manage the Mogadishu seaport and are bidding for the Kismayo port.
- In response to the Saudi-led campaign against Qatar, Turkey sent troops to Qatar and is speeding up its plans of military presence in the country.
- The Chief of Staff of the Iranian military arrived in Turkey to coordinate policy on Iraq and Syria. It is the first time such a high-ranking military official visits Turkey since the 1979 revolution.
- Recently, a Turkish foundation finished the construction of the largest mosque in Central Asia in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek. Turkey announced a $20 million contribution to the FAO’s work aimed at improving food security and rural development in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Analysis
Due to its strategic location between continents and sea-lanes, its vast population, and strong organization, the Turks have been a great regional power throughout history. Under the Erdogan regime, it emerged from its subservient role as NATO’s flank to become a power in its own right again.
Due to its strategic location between continents and sea-lanes, its vast population, and strong organization, the Turks have been a great regional power throughout history. Under the Erdogan regime, it emerged from its subservient role as NATO’s flank to become a power in its own right again.
Over the last decade, Turkey has faced many obstacles while implementing its more active diplomacy: It supported Islamist groups in the Arab Spring that since have lost ground and it became entrenched in the Syrian civil war by supporting anti-Assad groups. Turkey has also clashed with Russia, Israel, and the European Union. These are, however, necessary steps in its regional expansion and it is currently pushing ahead. While it also has a westward policy towards the Balkans and the Mediterranean, Turkey is particularly expanding eastwards.
In the northeast, the normalization of relations with Russia has opened the door to more engagement with Central Asia. The ‘Stans’ share a Turkic heritage of language and culture. Pan-Turkic movements, which Turkey has supported since the fall of the Soviet Union, aspire to see a cooperation between a central part of the Eurasian plains, spanning from Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Central Asian countries all the way to Siberia and Western China. Too much involvement in this region, however, will in time strain the Turkish relations with Russia and China. In the southeast, Turkey is increasing its influence in the Middle East and East Africa. The country has sided with Qatar against the Saudi- and UAE-led coalition. Turkey has, for a long time, coordinated its Middle Eastern policy with Qatar from Syria to Egypt and Tunisia. In the Middle East, Turkey aspires to become the preeminent power. In this region, a struggle for influence is occurring between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Recent Turkish moves suggest that, instead of supporting just one side, Turkey desires to balance the two powers, which will increase its own influence. The opening of a military base in Somalia could create an even greater Turkish circle of influence. It also ties in with commercial opportunities for Turkish infrastructure companies and increases trade links across the Indian Ocean, such as the Chinese Maritime Silk Road and India’s Mausam policy. Turkish ports and terminal operators are increasingly focusing on eastern trade and tourism.
Turkey thus faces challenges from regional competitors, but as its connections across Eurasia are increasing, it is positioning itself as a link between Europe and emerging Asia.
