Most people expect the war in Iran to end within days or weeks - much like the predictions surrounding Ukraine in February 2022. But a weak regime does not guarantee a short war. It merely means a more unpredictable outcome.
As we wrote in January, the weakening of the Iranian regime has opened a contest for control of the region. Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are all vying for influence - and none of them want the same outcome in this war. Israel and Turkey were already at odds: former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly framed Turkey as a threat on par with Iran. Now Israel is at odds with the Gulf states, whose entire economic model depends on the war ending immediately.
For decades, the Gulf states built their global standing on a single promise: whatever happens in the Middle East, the Gulf remains stable. That promise has now been broken. Missiles have struck Dubai's airport and hotels and killed civilians in Abu Dhabi. Thousands of travelers are stranded across the region - unable to fly home or forced to pay a massive premium to flee via Riyadh. Within days, the Gulf's reputation as a safe haven is already in serious doubt.
The most common critique of China’s innovation goes like this:
"Sure, China leads in solar panels and batteries – but those were invented elsewhere. And research dominance doesn't mean commercial success.“
It seems like a reasonable critique, but the data doesn't support it.
China now leads the US in open-source AI downloads (17% vs 16% globally). It has 8x more industrial robots installed in factories. And it's running more active clinical trials in biotech than the US.
These aren't legacy industries or lab metrics. They're consumer products, factory floors, and drug pipelines.
The question is not whether China is catching up, but whether the West has a good plan for a world where China is leading.
The second Trump presidency has fueled a widespread belief in Europe that Washington has gone soft on China and Russia. But the data tells a different story. US arms sales to Taiwan have accelerated dramatically from a record $11 billion in 2025 to a rumored $20 billion package for 2026. Meanwhile, US sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, triggered in October 2025 a collapse in Russian energy revenue to its lowest point in five years, directly threatening the stability of Moscow's war economy.
